A prediction market is a place where people trade contracts tied to a future outcome. A contract might resolve to yes if a specified event occurs and no if it does not. The price of a binary contract is often read as an implied probability: a contract trading at 40 cents suggests a roughly 40% chance before fees and other frictions. That is an interpretation of a market price, not a promise about what will happen. The resolution rules, the exact wording of the question and the deadline matter as much as the headline.
Markets aggregate the views and incentives of people willing to take a position. New information can move prices quickly, which makes them useful for following a developing story. But a price is not a poll. A poll asks sampled people what they think or intend to do; a market reflects the bids and offers of its participants. Neither is a crystal ball. Thin trading, limited access, ambiguous settlement terms and a sudden burst of attention can all distort the signal. Look at the market's liquidity, spread and rules before treating an odds move as a change in the underlying facts.
Platforms differ, too. Kalshi lists event contracts under a US regulatory framework; Polymarket is a separate platform with its own markets and access rules. Availability, fees and eligibility depend on where you live and the specific product. Prediction markets also differ from sportsbooks: both can express a view on an outcome, but their legal treatment, market mechanics and settlement terms are not interchangeable. A quoted probability is not automatically a good trade; the question is whether your estimate differs enough from the price to justify costs and risk.
Eventual follows prediction markets as a way to understand the news. Our coverage examines what traders are pricing, why a contract moved and where the market might be missing context. Read the latest stories below for live examples, explore our platform and topic hubs for focused coverage, or visit the how-to-trade guide for an introduction to the mechanics. Markets can sharpen a question; they cannot replace reporting, careful sourcing or your own judgment.
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